MEDEAS: a new modeling framework integrating global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints

Producción CientíficaA diversity of integrated assessment models (IAMs) coexists due to the different approaches developed to deal with the complex interactions, high uncertainties and knowledge gaps within the environment and human societies. This paper describes the open-source MEDEAS modeling framework, which has been developed with the aim of informing decision-making to achieve the transition to sustainable energy systems with a focus on biophysical, economic, social and technological restrictions and tackling some of the limitations identified in the current IAMs. MEDEAS models include the following relevant characteristics: representation of biophysical constraints to energy availability; modeling of the mineral and energy investments for the energy transition, allowing a dynamic assessment of the potential mineral scarcities and computation of the net energy available to society; consistent representation of climate change damages with climate assessments by natural scientists; integration of detailed sectoral economic structure (input–output analysis) within a system dynamics approach; energy shifts driven by physical scarcity; and a rich set of socioeconomic and environmental impact indicators. The potentialities and novel insights that this framework brings are illustrated by the simulation of four variants of current trends with the MEDEAS-world model: the consideration of alternative plausible assumptions and methods, combined with the feedback-rich structure of the model, reveal dynamics and implications absent in classical models. Our results suggest that the continuation of current trends will drive significant biophysical scarcities and impacts which will most likely derive in regionalization (priority to security concerns and trade barriers), conflict, and ultimately, a severe global crisis which may lead to the collapse of our modern civilization. Despite depicting a much more worrying future than conventional projections of current trends, we however believe it is a more realistic counterfactual scenario that will allow the design of improved alternative sustainable pathways in future work.Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project CO2017-85110-R)Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project JCI-2016–28833)MEDEAS project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon2020 research and innovation programme under grant agree-ment no. 691287.LOCOMOTION project, funded by the EuropeanUnion’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement no. 82110

Waterlogging differentially affects yield and its components in wheat, barley, rapeseed and field pea depending on the timing of occurrence

Waterlogging on croplands is increasing in various areas of the world. This study evaluated the yield penalty by early and late waterlogging on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) and field pea (Pisum sativum L.). Plants cultivated outdoors were exposed to a 14-day waterlogging during vegetative (at 65 days after sowing (DAS)) or reproductive (at 85/87 DAS) stages, followed by drained conditions until maturity. Yield (seed weight per plant) and its components (number of spikes/siliques/pods per plant, number of grains per spike/silique/pod and 1,000 grain weight) were assessed at maturity, along with morphological (number of tillers/branches) and shoot and root dry weight responses after waterlogging and during recovery. Wheat was the most tolerant species achieving 86% and 71% of controls in yield with early and late waterlogging, related to fewer grains per spike. Barley and rapeseed tolerated early waterlogging (yields 85% and 79% of controls) as compared to late waterlogging (32% and 26% of controls), mainly due to fewer spikes per plant (barley) or reductions in seeds per silique (rapeseed). Field pea was greatly affected by waterlogging at both timings, attaining a yield of only 6% of controls on average due to much fewer pods and fewer seeds per pod. So, wheat could be an option for areas facing either winter or spring transient waterlogging (i.e. early or late stages); barley and rapeseed are recommended only with if water excess occurs in early stages and field pea is intolerant to waterlogging.Fil: Ploschuk, Rocio Antonella. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura; ArgentinaFil: Miralles, Daniel Julio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura; ArgentinaFil: Colmer, Timothy D.. University of Western Australia; AustraliaFil: Striker, Gustavo Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura; Argentina. University of Western Australia; Australi